Is anyone really in control in Ukraine?

[Monday update:

More tweets from our deep throat at Kiev Airport:

The military and the border police continue to confiscate equipment that is being sent for the failed National Guard.

All cargo planes are inspected by the army. From what I can tell, they are of the same opinion as the Air Force.

The military command of Ukraine will make a decision in the next few days and communicate it to Russia, and their government, in that order.

70% percent of soldiers in Crimea have already communicated officially that they are transferring to the Russian army.

The EU, the USA and their blasted mother don't recognize the referendum, yet in Kiev most people accept it and care little or nothing about it.

It's incredible that [the referendum] is more accepted here than in the rest of the world. Why don't they leave these people alone, may I ask?

Military neighbors, friends, colleagues, consider [the referendum] legit and understand it and accept it. The world that gives opinions about these people, doesn't. Strange.]

[While everyone is concentrating on the referendum in Crimea, let's not lose sight of what's happening in the rest of (formerly independent) Ukraine. As we already know, the government in Kiev is dead broke; the aid that is forthcoming from the US is barely enough to cover its debt to Russia's Gazprom, for natural gas. Ukraine's bond yield has spiked to 50% while $15 billion of these bonds mature and have to be rolled over this year.

A lot has been made of the Russian and Belarussian troops massing all around Ukraine and in Crimea, but so far little has been heard of the state of the military within Ukraine itself. But now it appears that Ukraine's military (which has never been involved in any armed conflict anywhere and is poorly trained and poorly armed) is mostly on the Russian side already, and, in any case, not willing to follow orders from Kiev. It also appears that the National Guard goon squads being hastily organized by the government in Kiev may be effective at intimidating civilians, but that they won't be much of a military force.

Picture of the day

The Crimean “Crisis” and Western Bias

[Saturday update:

Rumors are flying that the US has confiscated Ukraine's gold reserves. It would make sense that the Fed would be gold-hungry, given the trouble they are having "finding" German gold that is "on reserve" with them (but has actually been "leased" to China, where it's been smelted down). And the US did confiscate Iraq's and Libya's gold reserves...

Ukraine's defense minister is trying to whip up hysteria, claiming that the Russians tried to invade and were repelled. (Had the Russians wanted to invade Ukraine, they wouldn't have “tried to”—they just sort of would have.) Looks like the Kiev junta is desperate to start an actual war ASAP, for lack of any other options, while the Russian strategy is to let them simmer in their own juices until the meat falls off the bone.

Two good reads: Vladimir Goldstein's “Let Kerry rethink the arrogance of America” and Ryan Faith's “Why Putin will get everything he wants in Crimea.”]

[Friday update:

Keiser Report Episode 571

I appear in the second half of the interview, talking mostly about the situation in Ukraine.

Chronology of the Ukrainian Coup

This is a guest post by Renée Parsons, who did a very good job of pulling together the facts. Facts are important, you know, especially in light of the rabidly anti-Russian press coverage in the US.

[Wednesday updates:
• According to a leaked EU's Ashton phone tape, the Kiev snipers, who shot both protesters and police, were hired by Ukrainian opposition leaders, did not work for overthrown Yanukovych
• It turns out that Russia has a legal right to maintain a military force of up to 25 thousand troops in Crimea in accordance with an agreement signed by Russia and Ukraine in 1997, which will remain in effect until 2043. Current Russian troop strength in Crimea is well under the legal limit. The troops are there to safeguard Russia's Black Sea fleet.
• John Kerry has pledged $1 billion in aid to Ukraine. Ukraine's natural gas bill to Russia is going to be $2 billion.]

Reichstag Fire in Kiev

Pawel Kuczyński

[Auf Deutsch; Vielen Dank, Alexander!]
[em Português]

[Tuesday Update:

Putin has held a conference on Ukraine. Here are the main points:
• No introduction of Russian troops into Ukraine is currently necessary; if it becomes necessary, then all the arrangements for doing so in accordance with domestic and international law are in place.
• Yanukovych is still Ukraine's official president, but doesn't have a future in Ukrainian politics. Ukraine needs reforms, but they have to be carried out in accordance with the law. To this end, a referendum on the constitution is highly recommended.
• All of the military activities in Crimea were carried out by Crimea's self-defense forces, which the Russians wholeheartedly support.
• Russia will not do anything to encourage separatism in Ukraine; such issues have to be decided by the population of Ukraine via a referendum.

Shock over Ukraine

Pawel Kuczyński

[Update: I am pushing this live a few days early, because the Ukrainian situation is evolving so rapidly. One political corpse (Yanukovych) is out; apparently he has fled to Russia. Another political corpse (Tymoshenko) has been hastily rehabilitated and is ready to be put on the ballot for elections in May. Question is, Will there still be a country for her to (pretend to) run? Financial reserves are down to a few days, federal structures are being dismantled throughout the country, regional governors are fleeing, and a default on some €60 billion of Ukrainian bonds, many held by Russian banks, seems likely. Could this be just the kind of financial contagion needed to finally pop the ridiculous US equities bubble? At least two Ukrainian provinces are openly talking secession; one (Crimea) wants to immediately join Russian Federation. A question for US State Dept. flunkies and EU functionaries: What does that do to your geopolitical calculus? At risk are five nuclear power plants and a lot of Russian gas that transits Ukraine on its way west. Ukraine is shaping up to be a lot like Yugoslavia, except with more than twice as many people, lots of crazed street fighters who think they now own the place, and a role critical to European energy security. If you aren't in shock about this, then you haven't been paying attention.]

I've been receiving a lot of emails asking me what I thought was happening in Ukraine. It took me a while to formulate an opinion, but what I now think is happening is this: a complete and utter failure of politics on every level.

The Good Life: Mobility, Anonymity, Freedom

AK3D

The recent advanced in networked mobile computing has made it rather unnecessary for a large class of people—ones who use computers for work—to maintain a fixed abode: it is now possible to do all the same things, via the Internet, from any place in the world that has a wifi signal.

“American” exceptionalism

Olivia Locher

The term “American exceptionalism” has been receiving more than its fair share of play recently. It was pressed into service in the vapid banter that passes for political discourse in the US, with the Republicans accusing Obama of not believing in it. More recently, it surfaced as a term in international relations, when Russian president V. Putin chastised the US for believing it in a NY Times editorial, equating it with chauvinism and lack of respect for the rule of international law. It seems that it is Putin's dream to extend his cherished concept of “dictatorship of the law” to encompass even the US.

How To Time Collapses

Douglas Smith
Zeus

[In italiano] [日本語で] Over the past half a decade I've made a number of detailed predictions about collapse: how it is likely to unfold, what its various manifestations are likely to be, and how it will affect various groups and categories of people. But I have remained purposefully vague about the timing of collapse and its various stages, being careful to always append “give or take half a decade” to my dire prognostications. I wasn't withholding information or being coy; I really had no way of calculating when collapse will happen—until five days ago, when, out of the blue, I received the following email from Ugo Bardi: