Understanding Organizational Stupidity

Shintaro Kago

Is it morning in America again, or is the bubble that is the American economy about to pop (again), this time perhaps tipping it into full-blown collapse in five stages with symphonic accompaniment and fireworks? A country blowing itself up is quite a sight to behold, and it makes us wonder about lots of things. For instance, it makes us wonder whether the people who are doing the blowing up happen to be criminals. (Sure, they may be in a manner of speaking—as a moral judgment passed on the powerful by the powerless—but since none of them are likely to see the inside of a jail cell or even a courtroom any time soon, the point is moot. Let's be sure to hunt them down once they try to run and hide, though.) But at a much more basic and fundamental level, a better question to ask is this one:

The Five Stages Of Collapse reviewed By Carolyn Baker

Many of us who have been researching collapse for a decade or more repeatedly use the word in writing, speaking, and daily conversation, but few of us have the opportunity to define it with such precision or personal experience as one finds in Dmitry Orlov’s forthcoming book Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors’ Toolkit (New Society Publishers, 281 pages). I first heard of Dmitry when I was writing for From The Wilderness in 2005 after FTW published “Post-Soviet Lessons For A Post-American Century,” one of Orlov’s first articles in the United States naming our predicament and likely outcome.

Since then I have been a huge fan of Dmitry’s work, and I must concur with Richard Heinberg who says, “Even if I believed collapse were impossible I’d still read everything Dmitry Orlov writes: he’s that entertaining.” Incisive articulation of reality tempered with irrepressible humor and sarcasm define his writing style and not only compel us to stay with what some describe as a “dark Russian perspective,” but reveal a man who has found a way to live with what is so and navigate it with buoyant humanity.

2013 Second Annual Age of Limits Conference

[Guest post from Orren. I’ll be there. Hope you can make it.]

Thursday May 23 through Monday May 24
The Four Quarters Interfaith Sanctuary, Artemas, Pennsylvania

Dedicated to the pioneering work of Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers and Dennis Meadows and their epochal 1972 report The Limits to Growth.

Hello! Orren Whiddon here with a reminder of what we are planning for this years 2013 Age of Limits conference, and our new Sustainable Life Skills Intensive.

• This year we have extended Age of Limits to a full three days of content, beginning Thursday evening May 23rd and ending Monday Noon May 27th. With this expanded schedule we will not have to “double-book” two presentations at the same time, allowing for for 1½ hour major presentations each day. In between we will host numerous one hour workshop and networking opportunities, expanding the time available to continue the conversation—person to person, face to face.

KunstlerCast #223: Rappin’ with Dmitry Orlov

James Howard Kunstler raps with Dmitry Orlov, author of Reinventing Collapse and the forthcoming new book, The Five Stages of Collapse. We delve into some heretofore unpublicized details of Mr. Orlov’s personal history as a young émigré from the old Soviet Union in the 1970s, and his journeys back to Russia (both Soviet and post-Soviet) since then.

Listen to it here.

Direct Download: KunstlerCast_223.mp3

Interview on Voice America Business Matters with Jay Taylor

Jay and I discuss how the USA is following in the footsteps of the USSR, how financial collapse is progressing, how the various stages of collapse relate and what's in my new book. You can listen to it here or download the mp3 here.

In this week's episode of the radio program, Ellen Hodgson Brown and Dmitry Orlov discuss the continuing collapse of western society thanks to the parasitic behavior of our banking establishment.

With outright confiscation of depositor money in Cyprus, parasitic elite is no longer robbing us in the night through the hidden tax of inflation but now robs people through outright confiscation of deposits. How long yet before Robert Prechter's next “dark age” arrives? Orlov gives us an idea of which of the five Stages of Collapse the U.S. is now in, as he compares our demise to that of the former Soviet Union's collapse.

The Untrustworthy and the Trustful

Aaron Jasinski

[This is an excerpt from The Five Stages of Collapse which seems quite topical given the new banking rules being set down in Europe and the US, according to which your bank deposits will no longer be guaranteed. With the precedent being set in Cyprus, bank deposits are being turned into unsecured loans, and when the bank folds you might get some bank stock, which you may or may not be able to sell, or you might get nothing at all. Now that large cash transactions and stockpiles are illegal, bank deposits liable to evaporate without notice, and gold likely to be re-regulated and re-confiscated before too long, what's your plan for opposing financial tyranny? I believe that before you can hatch any such plan, you must first decide: Who do you trust?]

Within a modern, highly financialized economy, most interactions are impersonal, based on purchase and sale within a market system. If you are the loser in any one transaction, it is your fault, because you chose to deal with people you had no particular reason to trust, and therefore it is your mistake. If the swindle is not illegal, you have no legal recourse. You can, of course, complain to a few friends, perhaps even blog or tweet about it, but then, in a market economy, more of a stigma attaches to being swindled than to swindling, and most people are reticent when it comes to telling the whole world that they let someone take advantage of them.

Bangs and Whimpers

Anatol Knotek

[Update: The Five Stages of Collapse has finally been sent to the printer. May delivery is now guaranteed. Please place your order below.]

Quite a few people wrote to me over the past week asking about all the noise coming out of Cyprus. If you haven't heard, there is a financial collapse that is unfolding there: banks are closed and people can't get at their money. The Cypriot banks are insolvent. This is no surprise: all banks everywhere are insolvent, and would fail immediately were the various types of ongoing bailouts to suddenly stop. These bailouts include an ever-longer list of annoying financial jargon—liquidity injections, quantitative easing, toxic-asset-purchasing by central banks, accounting tricks such as “mark-to-fantasy,” which allows them to make bogus claims as to the value of their assets, yadda-yadda. The point is, the financial system failed in 2008, and stayed that way. The faulty formula behind all modern finance is debt raised to the power of time, and only works when there is exponential growth in economic activity and energy. Energy's exponential growth stopped in 2005 due to resource depletion; three years later finance collapsed. Permanently. Since then we have been witnessing a global game of “extend and pretend,” which cannot be played indefinitely. If something can't go on forever, it doesn't.

Open Thread

The book is going to press next Monday and, having edited it and proofread it and fact-checked it relentlessly for weeks now, I am in no mood to churn out another weekly essay. There are 30 thousand of you out there! Can't some of you write something interesting yourselves, for once? Just this once? Thank you!

The proliferation of defunct states

[Another excerpt from The Five Stages of Collapse.]

The triumph of the nation-state was made possible by the triumph of industry over artisanal production, especially in the area of weaponry. Industrialization gave the larger nations the means to produce vast quantities of war matériel, in turn giving them the impetus to homogenize and standardize the population by imposing a single language and educational system in order to be able to field a unified fighting force. The transformation was profound: at the time of the French Revolution only 10-12 percent of the French population could be said to speak French; in Italy the number of people who could be said to speak Italian was even lower. It allowed a handful of European nation-states to conquer the entire planet, before suffering the successive paroxysms of the two world wars. As they retreated, they did their best to carve up the planet into patches that, they hoped, would emerge as nation-states in their own right.

Where There's No Government

Mason London

Excerpt from The Five Stages of Collapse

[In italiano: Dove non c'è governo]

Modern societies rely on the government to defend property rights, enforce contracts and regulate commerce. As the economy expands, so do the functions of government, along with its bureaucratic structures, laws, rules and procedures and—what expands fastest of all—its cost. All of these official arrangements show an accretion of complexity over time. Each time a new problem needs to be solved, something is added to the structure, but nothing is ever taken away, because previous arrangements are often grandfathered in, and because simplifying a complex arrangement is always more difficult and expensive than complicating it further. But socioeconomic complexity is never without cost, and once the economy crests and begins to contract, this cost become prohibitive. In the context of a shrinking economy buffeted by waves of escalating crises, an outsized officialdom comes to exhibit ever greater negative economies of scale, while the arduous task of reforming it so as to scale it down and simplify it cannot receive priority due to a lack of resources. In the best case, after a more or less chaotic transitional period, new, simplified and scaled-down official structures do eventually arise.